Who can beat the Conservatives in Melksham and Devizes?

[Image Credit: YouGov projection for Melksham and Devizes, as of 19th June]

In the new constituency of Melksham and Devizes, who should voters support if they want to stop the Conservatives winning?

Some people have been showing us posts by Labour saying that they can beat the Conservatives.

Indeed, until this week there was one poll that put Labour second, narrowly ahead of the Liberal Democrats, by an organisation called This Vote Counts. But that has now changed. This Vote Counts now have the Lib Dems ahead of Labour.

And all the other polls that we have found put the Lib Dems first or second. (These polls were as of 19 June 2024.)

• Britain Predicts forecasts the Liberal Democrats’ Brian Mathew being ahead on 33% with the Conservatives on 30% and Labour in fourth place on 15%.
• As we write, YouGov has the Lib Dems just 0.4% behind the Conservatives on 34.3% with Labour trailing on 17%.
• Survation, which once had Labour second, now has the Lib Dems as the prime challenger.
• Electoral Calculus has the Conservatives ahead on 37% with the Lib Dems on 32% and Labour well behind on 13%.
• The Melksham & Devizes Primary group, which encourages tactical voting, is promoting a poll showing the Lib Dems well ahead of Labour.
• The bookies also put the Lib Dems second. As we write this, most betting firms have the Lib Dems on 6/4 or 7/4 in Melksham and Devizes with Labour way behind at 16/1 or 20/1.
• Tacticalvote.org, which is independent of all parties and recommends who to vote for in each seat to keep the Conservatives out, is saying “To vote tactically here, vote Lib Dem”.
• Getvoting.org has recommended a Lib Dem vote. It says: “Tactical voting could have a significant impact on the result in Melksham and Devizes, and voters should unite behind the Lib Dems to beat the Tories here.
• And to cap it all, even the Labour party is focusing elsewhere. If you volunteer to help on the party’s website and enter a post code in Melksham and Devizes, you get a message saying: “We've identified battleground areas that are crucial to secure a Labour victory. Our top choice for you is Swindon North.”

Of course, the poll that matters is on 4 July. And Liberal Democrats would prefer a voting system where every vote makes a difference. But under the current system, the overwhelming evidence from the pollsters so far is that the Lib Dems are the clear challengers to the Conservatives here.

And we think some polls may underestimate the Lib Dems’ potential. Polls for particular areas tend to be based partly on the national ratings of the parties – and partly on the make-up of the constituency – in terms of age, income, educational levels and so on.

But we don’t think they always give enough weight to the relative strength of the parties locally. And we believe that a critical factor in Melksham and Devizes is the strength of the local Liberal Democrats.

Just look at the local numbers. In the Wiltshire Council elections in 2021:

• Labour received only around 1,400 votes across the constituency, or 5% of the total, while the Liberal Democrats had more than 10,000, or 34%.
• Labour did not stand at all in 11 of the 19 electoral divisions within the new constituency, including none of the divisions in Bradford on Avon and four out five in Melksham.
• Lib Dems had five Wiltshire Councillors elected; Labour had none. 

Lib Dem candidate Brian Mathew says: “Which party are you seeing most of in this campaign? Dozens of Lib Dem canvassers are out and about every day and we are seeing more and more orange posters appearing, from Box in the west to Urchfont in the east.

“Some of the posters are in the windows and gardens of Labour supporters who believe we have the best chance of winning. One Labour supporter in his 80s told us he had been voting Liberal or Lib Dem since the 1960s – before ‘tactical voting’ was ‘a thing’.

“The polls all agree on one thing. There are more anti-Conservative voters in Melksham and Devizes than Conservative ones. It would be heartbreaking for progressive voters to split the vote and let the Tories in. We genuinely believe we are the main challengers and so we are asking Labour and Green supporters to back us to beat the Conservatives.

“Then, if elected, I will campaign strongly for a proportional voting system, as supported by millions, across party lines, so that every vote counts and tactical voting becomes a thing of the past.”

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